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Vol 2, No. 6 June
2001 Reprint in Basic Email Format
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*ACTIONABLE
INVESTOR NEWSLETTER
Welcome to the
Electronic-Boardroom TMVI® Newsletter!
This E-zine is
published monthly and distributed to paid annual subscribers ($1200) or
Electronic-Boardroom TMVI® Club members.(Annual membership fee of $6,000
includes Newsletter, Oxford UK Briefing, Garment2go™, free governance
breakfasts /lunches and topical reports, custom research for 4 hours.) Our
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address. Thanks for your subscription and warmest regards.
http://www.electronic-boardroom.com/ebcatalog.html
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IN
THIS ISSUE:
EDITOR'S
REMARKS:June Klein, CEO
Technology & Marketing Ventures, Inc.
jklein@tmv.com
FEATURE: Cisco Makes the TMVI® Grade
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EDITOR'S
REMARKS
One of our
subscribers sent an email regarding dealing with the reality of unsold technology
stocks in his IRA.
Q "I have
an IRA with 87% of the investments in tech stocks which are currently
underwater. I agree with your previous assessment that firms like Microsoft,
Oracle, Citrix, APC and Corning will probably come back and are worth holding
on to. I also agreed with your previous high ratings on Citigroup, Merrill and
IBM but those stocks are in my non-IRA account. I have 6 years before I can
withdraw money from the IRA without penalty. What should I do?"
A
You might consider balancing out your IRA portfolio with the
Kemper-Dremen High Return Equity Value Fund, Class B. It has only 9% tech
stocks with rest $1billion stocks in what was recently called undervalued
market sectors, 5star Morningstar rating, 2000 return=41%, 5year return=16%,
proven portfolio manager. There are no in or out fees, if you hold for 5 years.
Subscribers:
Questions sent to jklein@tmv.com will be published anonymously in each monthly
issue.
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FEATURE: CISCO - ELECTRONIC-BOARDROOM TMVI® RATING
The
unique TMVI® rating system employs a ranking in 4 categories. Each technology
company reviewed by the Electronic-Boardroom TMVI® Newsletter is questioned,
analyzed and judged in terms of:
TECHNOLOGY -- Is
the company on the right path to develop or sustain superior information
technologies?
MARKETING -- Does
the company have a realistic marketing strategy to exploit the superior
technology?
VENTURES -- Has
the company chosen the right partners and made effective use of alliances to
enhance its products, services and operations?
INC -- Does
the company have a corporate structure that is nimble and flexible enough to
respond quickly to changes in the marketplace?
IN CISCO'S CASE, THE ANSWER TO EACH QUESTION IS YES
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CISCO MAKES THE TMVI® GRADE AGAIN.
CURRENTLY: Re-bought at 14 and is
on the rise up to 26.
FUTURE PLANS: Hold for 2½ -3 years to
maximize long-term value.
TECHNOLOGY
The
Cisco 1750 Modular Access Router was awarded the Network Computing 2001
Well-Connected Award for Enterprise VPN Solutions at the 2001 Network
World-Interop trade show. We agree that this network computing award represents
a well-deserved salute to Cisco for providing branch offices with the very best
the computer networking industry has to offer.
Cisco
is a web-centric firm that uses the web for more than just a distribution
channel. "Web-centricity" is the only way to lower costs, sell
services and create competitive advantage. Cisco and financial services firms
understand the required systems integration, but many firms want to reap the
benefits without extending the necessary sophistication, time and costs.
MARKETING
An
example of Cisco's Worldwide Channels Program is their webcast on blended
e-learning solutions. Through case
studies and Q&As, the viewer sees how Cisco is reducing costs, increasing
productivity, and maximizing the effectiveness of its partners' e-learning
experience. Resellers are supported with field marketing strategies that
leverage other equipment vendor initiatives. This enables resellers to increase
their sales and helps end-user customers to focus on meeting their business
goals.
Cisco
has equipment in 85% of the Fortune 500. Sales to telecom companies make up about
40% of Cisco's revenues. Approximately half of their sales come from new
telcos, many with weak management, illogical plans and dwindling cash. The drop
in demand relates to the 70% of the excess inventory, telecom gear and parts,
which were written-down. Unlike the dot bombs on the "NASyech,"
old-world phone companies are likely to survive the current downturn. In the
telecom market, Cisco has the means to acquire a mature player and become a
dominant force. However, the cultures and strategies clash.
A key
for Cisco profit is behind-the-scenes, growth driver applications with a lot of
Cisco gear in the LAN and hosting backend. The application must cut across
worldwide markets and be digestible today. I plan to contact John Chambers on
our secure, collaborative workspace designed for board of director productivity
with related workspaces for inter-company transactions.
VENTURES
Cisco
is a master in creating infrastructure ventures. May 2001, Cisco, EMC, and
Oracle announced the latest in a series of solution blueprints for
high-availability e-business infrastructures across databases, application
platforms, storage, and networks. This
means selling opportunities for Cisco 7000 routers, Catalyst 6000 switches,
LocalDirector, Distributed Director, Cache Engines, CSS11000, and the PIX
Firewall. The Cisco AVVID Partner Program is a solutions interoperability
program developed to deliver comprehensive security solutions for Cisco
networks. Opensystems.com supports the SAFE Network Security Blueprint from
Cisco. A Cisco-EDS-Dow Chemical venture is creating a global voice over
internet system.
Watch
the Cisco deals as investment buys. For example, SonicWall Inc.'s stock jumped
13% on news the Internet security software company signed a manufacturing pact
with Cisco Systems Inc., a deal that will boost the company's security socket
layer business.
INC
Cisco
has gone from the world's biggest market cap of $550 billion, surpassing
Microsoft and General Electric, to $115 billion. However, it is still head and
shoulders above its rivals. Further, Cisco has $17 billion in cash and
investments and its balance sheet is debt free.
Cisco's
two-year financial performance, ranges from the quarter's gross margin of 6.9%
to last year's 64.5%. Perhaps, taking a
$2.5 billion inventory write-down in a predictably weak quarter may result in
future quarters looking better. The result of a quick drop in demand from new
telcos could be very nice margins if products can be sold using inventory with
zero cost. This suggests that an accurate profile of Cisco's financial
characteristics going forward would be more of a middle ground.
I
worked with John Chambers at Wang and IBM and have a lot of confidence in him
and his financially savvy board. Like myself, anyone who has lived through 30
years of global technology and financial services knows how to handle the
inevitable extreme highs and lows of these markets. Nevertheless, the audit committee should hire an independent
Electronic-Boardroom TMVI® consultant to thoroughly research SEC past reactions
to inventory write-offs and explore changes to accounting practices that would
be more consistent with the nature of advanced technology growth firms.
I bet
on John in January 1998 when 100 shares of the unknown Cisco were worth $6,500.
Only the lack of market readiness led me to sell in September 2000 when 100
shares were worth $39,000. A few of my colleagues felt we should stay in as
Cisco went higher. I said to you then, we make money being a bear or a bull,
but not a pig... it's enough. For me, it is time to come back in and stay
another 2 1/2 years.
________________________________
©®1992-2001
Technology & Marketing Ventures, Inc. 444 E 82 ST NY NY 10028-5922. All rights reserved. Electronic-Boardroom TMVI®
is a registered trademark of T&MV.
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